Europe's Shifting Sands: War, Energy, and Alliances

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war continues to see significant developments on both military and diplomatic fronts, with various international actors expressing their concerns and taking action. The conflict has led to notable shifts in energy security, economic relations, and military strategies across the globe.

Military Developments and Energy Infrastructure Attacks

Ukraine has intensified its drone attacks on Russian territory, leading to a significant impact on Russia's oil refining capabilities. According to "Reuters," Russia may have lost 17% of its oil refining capacity due to these attacks, which have caused production to cease entirely at several large oil refineries during a peak demand period. Specific refineries affected include Volgograd, Novokuybyshevsk, Samara, Saratov, and Syzran, all of which have ceased operations. Afipsky, Slavyansky, and Novoshakhtinsky oil refineries have also been targeted. These attacks have contributed to rising fuel prices in Russia since winter, making it unprofitable for petrol stations to sell fuel without increasing prices. Problems with petrol availability have already affected regions such as Crimea, Transbaikalia, Primorye, and the Kuril Islands, leading to discussions among oil company heads and Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak regarding the release of reserved petrol supplies.

On the Ukrainian side, the General Staff of the Armed Forces has confirmed ongoing battles for settlements in the Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time. Ukrainian forces are engaged in fighting in the areas of Zaparozhskoye and Novogeorgiyevka villages, near the border with Donetsk province, and claim to maintain control over Zaparozhskoye. This confirmation comes despite initial reports by the "DeepState" monitoring platform suggesting Russian forces had captured two villages in the region, which Ukraine has refuted. Russia's Ministry of Defence, however, claims to have seized several settlements, including Zaparozhskoye and Novogeorgiyevka. It is noted that the Dnipropetrovsk region has not been officially annexed by Russia, unlike Donetsk, meaning Moscow still considers it Ukrainian territory.

Russia has also shifted its focus to targeting Ukraine's natural gas infrastructure, a change from the initial years of the war when attacks primarily aimed at the country's electrical grid. This strategy, observed since the agreement for Russia to transport fuel through Ukrainian territory to Europe expired in January, aims to cripple Ukraine before winter by creating a natural gas shortage. Ukraine's largest gas producer, Naftogaz, reported over 100 strikes on its infrastructure in nine air attacks in 2025 alone, representing nearly half of all attacks since the 2022 invasion. Consequently, Ukraine is urgently seeking to import natural gas from Azerbaijan and the United States to fill its underground storage facilities to 13.2 billion cubic metres before winter, with about one-third of this volume expected from imports. Ukraine's Minister of Energy, Svitlana Hrinchuk, confirmed negotiations with US firms for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, with the Odessa compressor station, targeted in August, being crucial for importing US LNG from Southern European ports.

In other military aid news, the US presidential administration has approved the sale of 3,350 ERAM missiles to Ukraine, with delivery expected within six weeks. This $850 million weapons package, which also includes other armaments, is being financed by European countries. The decision to sell these missiles was reportedly delayed until after President Trump's meetings with Putin and Zelensky. Ukrainian forces will require Pentagon authorization to use the ERAM missiles, which have a maximum range of 450 kilometres. A prisoner exchange has also taken place, with Russia and Ukraine exchanging 146 military prisoners each. Eight residents of Russia's Kursk region were also returned to Russia, and the UAE mediated the exchange.

North Korea continues to support Russia in the conflict, with its leader Kim Jong Un honouring soldiers who have fought alongside the Russian army in Ukraine. North Korea first reportedly sent troops to Russia in October 2024, a fact confirmed by Russia in April 2025. North Korea also provides Russia with ammunition and missiles, and in June, Russia's Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoygu indicated that Kim Jong Un would send deminers and construction workers to clear mines in Russia's Kursk region. South Korean MPs, citing intelligence, estimated that North Korean troops' total losses in the war against Ukraine are approximately 4,700, including 600 fatalities.

International Diplomacy and Political Stances

Peace talks and international relations surrounding the conflict remain complex. US President Donald Trump has indicated that he discussed nuclear disarmament with Russian President Vladimir Putin during Putin's visit to Alaska, with the intention of involving China in the dialogue. Trump claimed the US has the most nuclear weapons, followed by Russia, with China third but rapidly catching up. He described his dialogue with Putin as "good". The last nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia, START III, expires in 2026, and while it limits each country to no more than 1,550 ready nuclear warheads and 700 carriers, Russia has suspended its participation since the invasion of Ukraine. According to SIPRI, as of January of this year, there were 12,241 nuclear warheads globally, with the majority belonging to Russia (4,309) and the US (3,700). China's arsenal is estimated at 600 warheads but is growing faster than other nuclear powers, potentially exceeding 1,000 by 2027.

Trump also suggested that the US could impose sanctions and tariffs on Ukraine, not just Russia, if a peace agreement is not reached, categorizing sanctions as "economic warfare" and stating that "Zelensky is not entirely innocent". He also claimed that Putin "dislikes" Zelensky, which is why Putin is unwilling to meet him. Trump announced that he would make a "very important decision" regarding Russia and Ukraine within two weeks, potentially involving large-scale sanctions, tariffs, or a decision to do nothing.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly considers the possibility of freezing the front line in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions without a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops as a concession, though he maintains other demands. These include full Russian control over Donetsk and Luhansk regions, recognition of annexed Crimea as Russian territory, Ukraine's rejection of NATO membership, a halt to NATO's eastward expansion, limitations on Ukrainian armed forces, and a ban on Western troops in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated that ceding national territories is unconstitutional. Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to the Ukrainian Presidential Office, expressed Ukraine's readiness to freeze the conflict along the current front line and acknowledge some territories as "de facto" lost, but plans to reclaim them through diplomatic and economic means in the future. He described Putin's strategy as long-term negotiations without a ceasefire and emphasized that concessions would not end the war. Podolyak also noted that Ukraine needs missiles capable of reaching Russian territory to ensure its security.

Zelensky views direct negotiations with Putin as "the most effective path forward" for peace. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is not planned, as Putin is ready to meet only if there is a substantive "presidential agenda," which he believes does not yet exist. Lavrov also claimed that Russia showed "flexibility" during the Putin-Trump meeting in Alaska, but Zelensky rejected conditions such as renouncing NATO membership, discussing territorial issues, and lifting the ban on the Russian language.

Hungary and Poland, typically seen as allies of Ukraine, have shown diverging positions. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop "threatening" Hungary and ending "irresponsible attacks" on its energy security. This statement followed Zelensky's remarks that the existence of the "Druzhba" oil pipeline, which supplies Russian oil to Hungary, depended on Hungary's position. Szijjártó highlighted that Ukraine's energy system had faced "serious attacks" and that attacks on energy security constitute an attack on sovereignty. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha retorted that Zelensky is the president of Ukraine, not Hungary, and that Hungary's energy security is in its own hands, advising diversification of energy sources. Szijjártó's comments come amidst Ukrainian forces striking oil pumping stations vital for the "Druzhba" pipeline, disrupting oil supplies to Hungary. Hungary has also previously blocked pro-Ukrainian initiatives in Brussels, including a €50 billion aid package and EU membership talks for Ukraine.

Poland's new president, Karol Nawrocki, who took office in early August, has effectively halted funding for Starlink satellite internet services to Ukraine from October 1st. Poland's Minister of Digitalisation, Krzysztof Gawkowski, stated that Nawrocki's veto of a law concerning aid to Ukrainian citizens, which included this provision, "cuts Ukraine's internet" and ends support for secure data storage for the Ukrainian administration. The cost of Starlink services for Ukraine paid by Poland's Ministry of Digitalisation was approximately $50 million per year. Nawrocki, a representative of the national-conservative PiS party, also vetoed extending payments for Ukrainian refugee children in Poland, stating his disapproval of payments to non-working Ukrainians. He has proposed other anti-Ukrainian initiatives, such as increasing the citizenship application period from three to ten years and a bill equating OUN-UPA symbolism with fascist and Soviet communist symbols, though these are not yet officially before parliament.

In response to heightened tensions between NATO and Russia, the German government cabinet has decided to increase the size of its armed forces and enhance military readiness. This includes a bill for voluntary military service, which could lead to compulsory service if recruitment targets are not met. Germany's Ministry of Defence hopes to double the number of trained reservists from 100,000 through a six-month voluntary program, with some volunteers potentially pursuing active service careers. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius aims to increase the number of active service members from 180,000 to 260,000 by the early 2030s, as part of a planned increase in military spending. Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared that "Russia is the biggest threat to freedom, peace, and stability in Europe and will remain so for a long time". Pistorius stressed that a strong, well-equipped army with strong personnel is necessary for a credible deterrence policy against Russia. Compulsory military service in Germany was officially suspended in 2011.

Russia has also continued its withdrawal from international agreements, with its government urging President Vladimir Putin to denounce the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture and Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment. Russia ratified this convention in 1998 but began withdrawing from international organizations and conventions after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including the Council of Europe and the European Convention on Human Rights, and refusing to implement decisions of the European Court of Human Rights.

Overall, the conflict continues to shape global dynamics, prompting various countries to re-evaluate their alliances, energy policies, and military preparedness.