A World on Edge: Geopolitical Shifts, Regional Conflicts, and Domestic Controls in August 2025

Global political landscapes continue to be marked by escalating tensions, significant military realignments, and complex regional and domestic challenges, as various reports from August 2025 reveal. From Russia's disengagement from international conventions to Germany's military expansion, and from the US imposing tariffs on India to new migrant control measures in Moscow, the international arena is in a state of flux.

Russia's Evolving Role and International Repercussions

Withdrawal from European Conventions: The Russian government has called on President Vladimir Putin to denounce the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture, which Russia ratified in 1998 after joining the Council of Europe in 1987. This move is part of a broader trend of Russia withdrawing from international organisations and conventions since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including the European Convention on Human Rights and refusing to implement decisions from the European Court of Human Rights.

Lavrov on the USSR

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov explained that his choice to wear an "USSR" sweater during a visit to the US was a display of nostalgia for his roots, not an expression of desire to restore the Soviet Union. He reiterated President Putin's view that while those who do not mourn the collapse of the USSR lack heart, those who wish to restore it lack brains.

North Korean Support

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has awarded soldiers who participated in the war against Ukraine alongside Russian forces. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) highlighted these soldiers for demonstrating the "unwavering ideological-moral superiority and combat capability" of the Korean People's Army. North Korea has been supplying Russia with ammunition and missiles and confirmed sending its military to support Russia in April 2025.

Russia's Peace Demands

President Putin reportedly considers the possibility of freezing the front line in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions without a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops as a concession. However, he continues to insist on other conditions, including full control over Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and the recognition of annexed Crimea as Russian territory. Conversely, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stated that ceding territory is unconstitutional. A Ukrainian presidential advisor suggested that Ukraine might agree to freeze the conflict along the current front line, recognising some territories as "de facto" lost, but with plans for their future diplomatic and economic reclamation.

Ukrainian Drone Strikes

Ukraine's drone attacks may have led to a 17% loss of Russia's oil refining capacity, with several major refineries ceasing operations. This has resulted in rising fuel prices and petrol supply issues in various Russian regions, including Crimea, Transbaikalia, Primorye, and the Kuril Islands.

Fighting in Dnipropetrovsk

Ukraine's General Staff has confirmed active fighting in settlements within the Dnipropetrovsk region, specifically in Zaporozhskoye and Novoheorhiyivka, near the border with the Donetsk region. While Ukraine maintains control of Zaporozhskoye, active combat continues in Novoheorhiyivka. Russia, however, claims to have captured several settlements in the region. The Dnipropetrovsk region has not been officially annexed by Russia, unlike Donetsk.

International Responses and Geopolitical Shifts

Germany's Military Expansion: Amid heightened tensions between NATO and Russia, Germany's government cabinet has decided to increase the size and military readiness of its armed forces. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius aims to increase active service personnel from 180,000 to 260,000 by the early 2030s, alongside a voluntary six-month military service program intended to double the number of trained reservists. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that "Russia is the biggest threat to freedom, peace and stability in Europe and will remain so for a long time", with Germany's security policy adapting in response.

US Tariffs on India

The United States has imposed additional 25% tariffs on Indian goods, bringing the total tariff to 50% for many products. This action is officially attributed to India's significant increase in Russian oil imports following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. India's share of Russian oil imports has surged from 1% to 42% since the war began. The tariffs are expected to heavily impact India's automotive, chemical, food, jewellery, and textile sectors.

Poland's Stance on Ukraine Support

Poland's new President Karol Nawrocki has effectively halted funding for Ukraine's Starlink satellite internet services from October 1st, by vetoing a law that included this aid. The Polish Digitalisation Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski stated that this decision "cuts off Ukraine's internet" and ends support for securing Ukrainian administration data. This decision, along with proposals to extend citizenship application periods and ban OUN-UPA symbols, reflects a shift in Polish policy towards Ukrainian refugees.

Australia's Expulsion of Iranian Ambassador

Australia has declared Iran's ambassador, Ahmad Sadiqi, and three embassy staff "persona non grata," accusing Iran of organising antisemitic attacks in Melbourne and Sydney in 2024. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese cited intelligence findings that Iran was behind a Jewish café fire in Sydney in October 2024 and a large synagogue fire in Melbourne in December 2024. Australia has also recalled its ambassador from Tehran and plans to list Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation. This marks the first time since World War II that Australia has expelled an ambassador.

Regional Diplomacy, Infrastructure, and Internal Challenges

Zangezur Corridor and 'Trump Road'

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has described the Zangezur corridor as a "peace project" for the entire region, aiming to boost economic cooperation between Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. The project includes a 224 km Kars-Iğdır-Aralık-Dilucu railway line, considered the "backbone" of the corridor. This route, referred to by Azerbaijan and Turkey as the "Zangezur corridor," would connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenia's Syunik province. A declaration signed in Washington by leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the US on August 8 also envisions a "TRIPP - Trump Road" through the region, explicitly stating it would protect Armenia's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and jurisdiction. Iran, while welcoming the peace agreement, has expressed concerns about potential negative consequences of any foreign intervention near its borders.

Iran-Russia Gas Supply

Iran is hopeful that Russian gas supplies via Azerbaijan will commence in the near future. Iran's ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, stated that negotiations with Gazprom are almost complete, with only the pricing issue remaining to be resolved. Russia's Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov previously indicated that annual volumes of up to 1.8 billion cubic metres of Russian gas would be supplied via existing infrastructure through Azerbaijan starting in 2025.

Georgia's NGO Crackdown

The Tbilisi City Court has frozen the bank accounts of seven non-governmental organisations (NGOs) at the request of the Prosecutor General's Office, which accuses them of financing protest activities and attempting to undermine the constitutional order and national security. These NGOs allegedly provided gas masks, protective eyewear, and other equipment to protesters, and covered fines and legal costs for those who violated rules. This follows widespread protests in Georgia after the government announced a suspension of EU membership talks until 2028.

Kyrgyzstan's Student Expulsions

Kyrgyzstan's State Committee for National Security (SCNS) has expelled over 20,000 students, including foreign nationals, from local universities following an anti-corruption audit. These individuals were registered as students but did not actually participate in the educational process, leading to a criminal case for "Official forgery". Many of those expelled were foreign students from countries like Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh, often enrolled in medical faculties in Osh and Bishkek.

Moscow's Migrant Control

From September 1st, migrants residing in Moscow will be required to confirm their residency using a new mobile application named "Amina". Additionally, migrants will be issued QR-coded electronic migrant cards, which police can use to verify their stay duration and legal compliance. Biometric data collection, including fingerprints and genomic information, is already in place for migrants at Moscow's airports to enhance control by the Federal Security Service and the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Dagestan's Tourist Dress Code Controversy

A video depicting a naked woman being photographed at the Khuchninsky waterfall in Dagestan has sparked heated public debate, with many users calling for the punishment of both the woman and her guide. This incident underscores ongoing tensions regarding tourist attire in the North Caucasus, where local authorities have issued guidelines recommending against shorts and T-shirts for men, and specifically banning "short shorts" in Kabarda-Balkaria. Recent incidents also include a man assaulting women in Kaspiysk due to their clothing choices.

Global Security and Nuclear Disarmament

US President Donald Trump has stated he discussed nuclear disarmament with Russian President Vladimir Putin during Putin's visit to Alaska, with both leaders planning to involve China in future dialogue. Trump noted that the US possesses the most nuclear weapons, followed by Russia, with China currently third but projected to catch up within five years. The last US-Russia nuclear control treaty, START III, is set to expire in 2026 and is currently only partially implemented after Russia suspended its participation following the invasion of Ukraine.