"Trump Route" Unveils Geopolitical Tensions: Drivers Face Delays Amid Regional Transport Shifts

Recent developments in the South Caucasus have brought a new transport initiative, dubbed the "Trump route," to the forefront, intended to redefine regional connectivity. However, its emergence appears to be intertwined with allegations of artificial delays at the Iranian border, raising questions about geopolitical motivations and their impact on daily operations.

The "Trump Route": A New Vision for South Caucasus Connectivity

The "Trump route" is a plan for reopening transport links in the South Caucasus, agreed upon by Yerevan and Baku with the mediation of the US president, Donald Trump, on 8 August in Washington. This initiative aims to connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia.

Key principles of this route, as explained by Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, are based on the "Crossroads of Peace" initiative, resting on four core principles for all participating states:

• Territorial integrity.

• Sovereignty.

• Jurisdiction.

• Reciprocity.

Significantly, this plan stands in contrast to Azerbaijan’s previous demand for a so-called "Zangezur corridor," an extraterritorial road, which Iran, like Armenia, had consistently opposed. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan clarified that terms not found in the Washington declaration are being circulated by "independent experts". He also stressed that the project specifically involves registering a company in Armenia, with shares split between Armenia and the United States. This arrangement is intended to benefit the US while also providing Iran access to the Black Sea, and Armenia connectivity to Russia via Azerbaijan’s railway.

Iranian Concerns and Armenian Reassurances

Initially, there was a degree of unease in Iran following the signing of the Washington documents. Iran welcomed the initialling of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan but voiced concern over "the negative consequences of any kind of external interference" near its borders. Iran's Foreign Ministry stressed that unblocking communications would contribute to stability only if implemented within the framework of mutual interests, respect for sovereignty, and territorial integrity, "without external interference".

However, after reviewing details, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the Islamic Republic’s demands regarding this route had been considered. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that initial concerns about geopolitical changes did not appear to have materialised and that the principles set out in the Washington declaration were in line with Iran’s position. He noted that earlier ideas of seizing Syunik or a corridor under Azerbaijani sovereignty had transformed into a road built by an American company registered in Armenia and under its jurisdiction, effectively removing the "corridor issue" from the agenda.

Armenia actively addressed Iran's concerns. Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan revealed that negotiations had taken "Tehran’s concerns about the US role" into account from the outset. He assured that the Iran–Armenia border would not change and that Yerevan had provided guarantees for its smooth and unhindered operation, highlighting that route unblocking would adhere to the sovereignty and jurisdiction of the involved countries.

Despite these reassurances, some "certain circles in Armenia and Russia" are reportedly trying to defend Iran's interests with "more zeal than the Iranians themselves," spreading claims about geopolitical risks for Tehran, external control over Armenia's border with Iran, and Armenia handing its overland routes to an American private company. These claims are attributed to Russian experts, politicians, journalists (including ethnic Armenians in Russia), and echoed by figures in Armenia’s political and expert circles. Political analyst Robert Ghevondyan suggests that "extremely concerned" figures in Yerevan and Moscow are attempting to "explain" to Iranians their real interests.

Drivers' Allegations: "Artificial Delays" at Iranian Customs

Amidst these diplomatic shifts, Azerbaijani and Turkish truck drivers report significant and artificial delays at Iranian customs. Drivers, speaking anonymously to "Gündəlik Naxçıvan," stated that the waiting time to cross into Azerbaijan from the Bilasuvar customs checkpoint has increased from 2-3 days to 4-5 days.

They claim Iranian customs officials told them these delays were related to the "Trump route" agreed upon in Washington on August 8. Drivers also alleged that they were mockingly advised to use the "Trump route" if they wished to avoid waiting.

Drivers suggest these delays are intentional, with a purpose to prevent Nakhchivan from breaking its blockade. They accuse Iran of deliberately inflicting hardship on them, viewing it as retaliation for the peace declaration. While some improvements have been noted, such as operational canteens and sanitary facilities, drivers complain that prices at these facilities are very high, being 2-3 times more expensive. They assert that despite customs being empty, their waiting period has increased, and there is no actual need for such prolonged waits.