The "Trump Route" Agreement: A New Chapter or Continued Volatility in the Caucasus?

The recent meeting in Washington on 8 August 2025 between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and US President Donald Trump has marked a significant moment for the South Caucasus, with the initialling of a peace treaty text and the establishment of the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP). While hailed as a potential breakthrough, the agreement has ignited mixed reactions and exposed deep regional fissures.

The "Trump Route" Explained

At the heart of the Washington agreement is the TRIPP, a US-managed route designed to connect mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory. The trilateral declaration signed by the leaders guarantees unimpeded connectivity while simultaneously affirming the protection of Armenia's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and jurisdiction. This addresses a long-standing Azerbaijani demand, with the American lease arrangement presented as a solution. While the agreement on TRIPP is a principal one, many details about its establishment and future oversight remain unclarified.

Another notable outcome was the agreement between Baku and Yerevan to send a joint letter to the OSCE, requesting the dissolution of the Minsk Group, a long-standing mediation body.

A Shift in Regional Dynamics: Winners and Losers?

The Washington meeting has been widely seen as a major win for the United States and Azerbaijan, while significantly impacting Russia's and Iran's influence in the region.

The United States is perceived to have achieved what others could not, sponsoring a critical route and re-asserting its stake in the region. State Department spokesperson Temmy Bruce emphasised the need to "take President Trump seriously" regarding this agreement, highlighting its importance to him.

For Azerbaijan, the agreement is seen as a "historic win," fulfilling its demand for a direct link to Nakhchivan and signalling a significant upgrade in its relationship with the US. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's primary goal was to reboot ties with the US, push for the removal of Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, and relaunch economic and energy cooperation, all of which he achieved.

Armenia's reaction has been more nuanced. While some view it with "cautious hope" as a step away from conflict and a potential economic boost due to reopening transit links, the opposition describes it as "unilateral concessions" that primarily benefit Azerbaijan. Concerns remain regarding the lack of details and the precondition of changing the Armenian Constitution, which would require a referendum potentially not until 2027.

Russia's standing in the region has taken a "major blow". The agreement effectively froze out Russia, which had previously controlled the proposed route and had been the primary regional player. Kremlin propagandists, like Vladimir Solovyov, have threatened Azerbaijan with a "special military operation" to prevent a perceived NATO base on the Caspian Sea, reflecting Moscow's anger and concern over its diminished influence. Russian officials also suggested banning Azerbaijani goods and "shaking down" Azerbaijanis in Russia. Azerbaijan, however, has publicly pushed back against these threats, highlighting Russia's military performance in Ukraine and asserting that an attack on Azerbaijan would mean an attack on Turkey.

Iran views the "Trump Route" as a "red line" and a threat to its regional security and geopolitical map, particularly due to the potential for an "American corridor" in the Caucasus. Iranian officials, including the Supreme Leader's advisor Ali Akbar Velayati, have stated that Iran will prevent the construction of such a corridor, with past military exercises on its north-west borders demonstrating this resolve. While initially welcoming the peace agreement, Tehran later expressed significant concern over foreign intervention near its borders. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, however, noted that the TRIPP agreement meets some of Iran's demands regarding territorial integrity and connection to Europe, but voiced concern over US and Armenian companies building the route. The agreement could severely weaken Iran's position as the sole route for Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan and its natural gas supplier.

Turkey has welcomed the agreement as a "historic opportunity" for regional peace and prosperity. Progress on TRIPP could also pave the way for Turkey to unseal its border with Armenia, a step agreed in principle years ago but previously frozen.

Challenges and the Path Forward

Despite the fanfare, significant challenges remain. The lack of detailed implementation plans for TRIPP raises questions. Armenia's internal political divisions and the constitutional changes required for full ratification present hurdles. Experts warn that authoritarian states are often unreliable in implementing agreements, citing the unfulfilled 2020 ceasefire statement.

International bodies like NATO, OSCE, the EU, and the Council of Europe have welcomed the agreement, seeing it as a vital step towards regional security and peace, and urged all parties to implement the agreed steps in a timely manner. However, the real question is whether Washington will maintain its "sustained American engagement" beyond a "one-day photo opportunity". The outcome will also be influenced by future US administrations and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could further weaken Russia's regional influence.

Ultimately, while the "Trump Route" represents a bold step towards resolving a long-standing issue and reshaping geopolitical alliances in the South Caucasus, its long-term success hinges on overcoming significant political, security, and diplomatic hurdles.