Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia: a new stage of crisis

A key turning point in the deteriorating relations came with the downing of an AZAL passenger plane in December 2024 near Aktau, Kazakhstan. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has been unequivocal, stating that the aircraft was hit by Russian air defense systems. According to Baku's claims, the order to fire came directly from Major General Aleksandr Tolopilo, commander of Russia's 51st Air Defense Division, with Captain Paladychuk commanding the Pantsir-S missile system involved.

Aliyev first publicly addressed the incident at the Global Media Forum in Shusha on July 19, 2025, calling it a "blatant violation of international law." He expressed surprise and disappointment at Russia's unwillingness to apologize, despite Baku's demand for an admission of guilt, punishment for those responsible, compensation for victims' families, and reimbursement for AZAL's damages. "Seven months have passed, yet there has been no explanation or acceptance of responsibility. This kind of behavior does not match the spirit of strategic partnership," Aliyev stated.

Moscow's official response, as conveyed by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on July 21, has been evasive. While acknowledging that "sometimes there are difficult periods in relations between two countries," Peskov noted that the investigation is ongoing and confirmed Azerbaijan's right to pursue the matter in international courts. Azerbaijan's Prosecutor General's Office plans to initiate international legal proceedings, referencing mechanisms used in the MH-17 case.

Beyond the plane incident, other flashpoints have exacerbated the rift. In June 2025, Russian police operations in Yekaterinburg led to the fatal shooting of two Azerbaijani nationals, which Baku condemned as a "demonstrative killing" and demanded compensation. In a tit-for-tat response, Azerbaijani authorities detained several Russian citizens in Baku, including employees of Sputnik Azerbaijan. These actions led to mutual summoning of ambassadors, underscoring the diplomatic strain.

Experts like Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher at the University of Bremen, believe these operations are politically motivated. He suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin, displeased with Aliyev, is using the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia as a tool of pressure, with figures like Aleksandr Bastrykin, head of Russia's Investigative Committee, taking a central role. Peskov, while acknowledging Azerbaijan's right to pursue legal action regarding the plane, emphasized that Moscow considers "respect for the rights of Russians in Azerbaijan important — just as Azerbaijanis in Russia are seen as 'a law-abiding and respected community.'"

The heightened tensions have spilled over into the media space, particularly through aggressive rhetoric from pro-Kremlin "Z-bloggers." Azerbaijani political analyst Elkhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas Research Center, claims these Kremlin-backed groups have launched a full-blown campaign against Azerbaijan. Figures like Vladimir Solovyov and Igor Strelkov (Girkin) are openly threatening Azerbaijan and President Aliyev, with calls for bombing Baku, deporting Azerbaijanis from Russia, and immediate Kremlin action.

Shahinoglu warns that this chauvinistic rhetoric, which resonates with parts of Russian society, is not just shaping public opinion but is also a tool of pressure. He anticipates potential economic and administrative measures against Azerbaijanis, such as rejections of agricultural imports and tax inspections targeting businesses. Some segments on Russian state TV have even directly questioned Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and sovereignty, provoking strong reactions from official Baku.

Amid these challenges, Azerbaijan is clearly recalibrating its foreign policy. At the Shusha Global Media Forum, Aliyev delivered a pointed message to Ukraine: "Never agree to occupation. We did so. Do not surrender and do not accept the violation of territorial integrity." Though delivered calmly, Moscow viewed this as a direct challenge, especially after Aliyev accepted Ukrainian combat brigade chevrons from a Ukrainian journalist.

Aliyev reiterated Azerbaijan's support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, stating, "We are neutral, but not indifferent," and affirmed continued humanitarian aid. This balanced wording signals Baku's attempt to pursue a neutral foreign policy while subtly aligning with Western principles without direct confrontation with Russia. Aliyev also hinted at a stronger alignment with the West, noting "great potential for strong ties with the United States" and "very positive signals from Washington."

Further underscoring its shift, Azerbaijan has conducted and planned several joint military exercises with Turkey and Central Asian states. Operations like "Eternal Brotherhood – 2025" and "Mustafa Kemal Atatürk – 2025," along with the scheduled "Eternal Brotherhood – IV," demonstrate a commitment to strengthening regional security cooperation within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States, a development that has clearly caused unease in Moscow.

Concurrently, Azerbaijan is actively pursuing expanded energy cooperation with the European Union, with talks in April and June focusing on gas supply and green energy initiatives. Even in its complex relationship with Iran, Baku is asserting its distinct approach, differentiating official ties with Tehran from the influence of parallel structures, despite recent criticisms from Iranian Supreme Leader advisors regarding Azerbaijan's regional activities and cooperation with Israel.

The current developments signal a departure from the pragmatic cooperation model that defined Azerbaijan-Russia relations post-2020. Azerbaijan's pursuit of legal action over the plane incident, its vocal concerns regarding its diaspora, and its evolving diplomatic rhetoric confirm this shift.

However, a complete rupture remains unlikely due to significant economic interdependencies. Russia is a major destination for Azerbaijani agricultural products, and remittances from over 300,000 Azerbaijanis living in Russia account for a substantial 46% of all monetary inflows into Azerbaijan. These factors incentivize both sides to avoid a full-scale conflict.

The multifaceted tensions — from the downed AZAL plane and pressure on the Azerbaijani diaspora to aggressive propaganda by Z-bloggers and Azerbaijan's assertive regional diplomacy — indicate that the relationship between Baku and Moscow has moved beyond a strategic partnership into a serious trust crisis. While economic ties may prevent an outright breakdown, the trajectory points towards a more complex and multi-directional relationship, with Azerbaijan increasingly leveraging international law and strengthening its military, political, and informational spheres to assert its position.