Post-COP30: Climate Action Perspectives for 2025

Post-COP30: Will 2025 Be the Year of Climate Setbacks or Progress?

The end of the COP30 climate meeting in Belém, Brazil, marks the start of a risky and important year. The world in 2025 is one where the planet is struggling. The year 2024 broke records, becoming the hottest year ever and the first to go over the 1.5°C warming limit, with temperatures reaching 1.60°C above pre-industrial levels. This harsh truth, along with constant extreme weather, makes the future uncertain. The question is whether political problems, along with worsening climate impacts, will lead to real action or to harmful opposition. This writing will look at this important point from three angles: international policy after COP30, the growing argument in public opinion and law, and how extreme weather is changing the world.

The Mixed Results of COP30: Progress and Political Roadblocks

Looking closely at the mixed results of COP30 is needed to understand what will happen with climate action in 2025. The meeting showed the global climate fight in a small way. It was a mix of political blocks and real progress, with both delays and the creation of new groups working together.

The meeting had disappointing things. The United States, the country that has polluted the most over time, did not have an official group at the meeting, which was a big loss in leadership. Also, the climate finance agreement from the COP29 meeting before was seen as confusing. Developing countries wanted at least $1.3 trillion each year, but only got a promise of $300 billion per year by 2035. One Nigerian representative called this amount a joke. This lack of money was made worse by countries that produce oil, like Saudi Arabia, which tried to stop and slow down progress.

Yet, this lack of leadership helped start real teamwork. In response to the blocks, a strong new group of over 80 countries from around the world, including the European Union, the UK, and countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, supported the Mutirão call for a fossil fuel roadmap, which asked for a clear plan for a fair change. Also, China was helpful in talks. Besides its negotiating positions, China's ability to produce things has lowered the cost of clean energy technologies. One COP30 leader said that China's work in solar, wind, and batteries is now allowing other countries to buy low-carbon technology at competitive prices. This mix of problems in talks and new teamwork makes the wider social fights that will shape 2025 more important.

The Court of Public Opinion: Global Action vs. Political Division

In 2025, the fight for climate action will be as much in the streets and at the polls as in official meeting rooms. A strong political opposition to climate policy is growing, but it is being met by an equally strong global movement of people asking for responsibility and quick action.

Politics have changed because of the new Trump government in the United States. This government has called the climate crisis a hoax and a scam, and its plans against climate action are clear. One study says its policies could cause 1.3 million more deaths worldwide, and there are plans to weaken important environmental laws like the Endangered Species Act. This position from a big country gives support to other countries that don't want to take climate action, allowing countries like Saudi Arabia to stop international agreements.

However, this political move backward has caused an immediate counter-movement. In the United States, millions of protestors gathered at over 1,400+ Hands Off! rallies to fight the new government's plans. This action is important because of its size and diversity, showing that the climate movement has grown beyond its usual supporters. The size of this global group is clear:

Indigenous Leadership: At COP30, Indigenous people were a strong force, blocking entrances to protest inaction. Their demands were made more urgent when the Guarani Kaiowá group in Brazil said that an attack killed a leader, saying, Our fight is for life, for land.

Youth Activism: Young people are still important for the movement. At a dialogue between generations during the meeting, young representatives asked global leaders questions, showing how urgent the crisis is for future generations.

Broad Groups: The movement's appeal to different generations and cultures is one of its strengths. Groups like Grandparents for Climate and the Knitting Rebellion in Finland have appeared, showing that care for the planet goes beyond age and background.

This growing public demand for action is moving from the streets to the courts, looking for legal ways to make sure climate promises are kept.

The Scales of Justice: Climate Lawsuits as a New Battle

Because of years of political inaction, people are using the legal system to ask for climate responsibility. The world's courts are becoming an important place for climate action, and 2025 is set to be a big year as important cases open new ways to take action. These legal plans are moving forward in four ways: using human rights law to hold countries responsible, clarifying international responsibilities, defending local policies, and proving that companies are directly responsible for harm.

A big win in 2024 set a strong example in human rights law. A group of older Swiss women successfully argued in the European Court of Human Rights that their government's poor efforts to meet emission goals broke their basic human rights. The ruling created a legal link between failures in government climate policy and human rights, opening the way for similar cases in Europe.

At the international level, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will explain country responsibilities. Its opinion on the obligations of States regarding climate change, expected in 2025, will be a legal base for future climate action and lawsuits worldwide.

Courts are also becoming important for defending local policies. In New York City, a judge dismissed a lawsuit trying to stop a city law that bans natural gas in new buildings, protecting the city’s right to cut emissions. Also, the election of Judge Susan Crawford secured a pro-environment majority on Wisconsin's Supreme Court, which is seen as important for protecting environmental rules.

Finally, climate law is growing to prove that companies are directly responsible. In a new case, an Iraqi father is suing UK oil company BP, saying that gas flaring at a nearby oil field caused his son's leukemia. This case tries to create a link between a specific polluting action by a company and a direct health effect. These legal fights are becoming stronger because of evidence of a planet in crisis.

The Reality We Can't Ignore: Extreme Weather as the Main Reason for Action

The year 2025 will happen with a strong reminder of climate reality. The scientific facts are clear: 2024 was the hottest year on record, with temperatures reaching 1.60°C above pre-industrial levels. But beyond the facts, constant extreme weather is changing public understanding, turning the climate crisis from a distant problem into a danger we face now.

The effects of this heat came as fires, floods, and droughts around the world.

Heat and Drought: Heatwaves broke records. In Delhi, a reading reached 52.9°C (126.1°F), while hot temperatures in the United States and Southeast Asia closed schools. These heatwaves caused droughts. Iran had its worst drought in 60 years, with Tehran getting only 1mm of rain. In Southern Africa, the drought was a crisis in Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi.

Water and Floods: Hotter oceans made storms stronger. Research said that ocean warming made all Atlantic hurricanes in 2024 stronger. After Hurricane Melissa hurt Jamaica, the country said it was the new phase of climate change. Floods in Valencia were one of the worst weather disasters in Spain. In southern Brazil, floods affected two million people, while floods also hit Pakistan, Vietnam, and Thailand.

Fire and Nature Loss: The heat and drought created conditions for wildfires. In Brazil and Bolivia, fires in the Amazon and the Pantanal wetlands released 210 megatonnes of CO2. The damage to nature was big. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there was the biggest coral bleaching event ever, and the UN said that one in five migrating species is now at risk.

These events are human disasters. In Lahaina, Maui, a school leader talked about a fire that appeared quickly: I got a call from a parent... She said: ‘Ryan, there’s a fire in town. We’ve lost our house. We barely got out alive.’ In India, a worker said she travels in 46°C heat: We just walk, the sun on us, till we reach the company. These personal problems, happening to millions, are making it clear that action is needed.

Conclusion: A Difficult Balance for 2025

The year 2025 is not set for either progress or setbacks. Instead, it is a difficult point where the future of climate action is in balance. The things that cause setbacks are strong, like the United States leaving its position of climate leadership, which could ruin years of progress.

But, this is being met by a strong response, driven by a three-part movement: a global public asking for action, a legal system holding governments and companies responsible, and clear proof of climate issues, making it impossible to ignore the cost of doing nothing.

In 2025, the climate talk is not just about policies or goals. It is about answering a planetary emergency. The forces against action are dealing not just with activists and courts, but with the realities of a changing climate.