China's CO₂ Output Stalls for a Year and a Half, Says Report

Carbon dioxide emissions in China haven't gone up in the last 18 months, according to a report by Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), written for Carbon Brief.

The report says that in the third quarter of 2025, China's CO₂ emissions stayed the same as the year before, a pattern that started in March 2024. This suggests that the world's biggest polluter might be close to its peak emissions level.

What's Happening with Energy and Industry

Even as electricity use went up by 6.1%, emissions from the power industry didn't change because of a quick growth in renewable energy. Solar energy jumped 46%, and wind went up by 11% compared to last year, which covered 90% of the extra power people needed. China put in 240 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 61GW of wind power in the first nine months of 2025.

Emissions from transportation dropped 5% as more people switched to electric vehicles. Cement production emissions went down 7%, and steel production fell by 1%. But the chemical industry saw a big increase, with emissions up by 10% because of a plastics and petrochemical boom. Plastic production went up 12% year-on-year, driven by demand for packaging, online shopping, and food delivery.

A Mixed Bag

Whether China's total emissions for 2025 rise a bit or fall will depend on what happens in the last three months of the year. Data from September, which showed emissions down 3% compared to the year before, made it more likely that there would be a drop for the whole year.

Still, China is expected to miss its 2020–2025 carbon-intensity goal, which was to lower CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by 18%. Experts think the reduction will only be around 12%, which means they'll need to make bigger cuts to reach the 2030 goal of a 65% reduction compared to 2005 levels.

What's Next for Policy

The Chinese government has said it will hit peak carbon emissions by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. In September, they said they want to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 7–10% below peak levels by 2035. Some think this isn't enough, but others say China has a history of doing more than it promises when it comes to climate action.

The next 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) is expected to focus on low-carbon growth and more clean-energy projects. Keeping up the fast growth of wind and solar power—beyond the current rate of about 200GW per year—will be key to reaching China's long-term climate goals.

Around the World

This news comes as leaders from around the world are meeting in Brazil for COP30, worried about lack of action on climate change. Although neither President Xi Jinping nor U.S. President Donald Trump are there, China's team has gotten attention for what the country is doing with green technology.

“China is thinking of answers that work for everyone,” said COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago, praising the country’s renewable energy leadership. “Solar panels are more affordable, and that’s a positive thing for the planet.”

If things stay as they are, 2025 could be the year China's emissions start to drop for good—something that could really help the world limit warming to 1.5°C.