Azerbaijan Inflation Debate: Official Figures Challenged

BAKU, 13 October 2025 — New data released by the State Statistics Committee (DSK) has highlighted a continued inflationary environment in Azerbaijan, although independent economists claim the real cost of living increase is significantly higher, potentially reaching double-digit figures.

The DSK reported today that consumer prices in September 2025 increased by 5.7 per cent compared to September 2024, indicating that inflation is currently approaching 6 per cent. However, the official inflation figure for the last year is also cited as being only 5 per cent.

The official statistics reveal significant price increases across several consumer categories for the period of September 2025 compared to September 2024:

• Food products, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco products: Prices rose by 7.9 per cent.

• Paid services provided to the population: Prices increased by 5.3 per cent.

• Non-food products: Prices saw a more modest rise of 2.4 per cent.

Expenditure data from the DSK points to a particularly sharp increase of 21.6 per cent in the cost of pharmaceutical products and medical supplies. Total spending on these items during the first nine months of 2025 reached 1 billion 139 million manat.

The rise in medical costs follows multiple price hikes on certain medicines implemented this year by the Tariff Council in Azerbaijan. Experts note that many medications in Azerbaijan are sold for several times more than in neighboring countries.

Overall, retail trade turnover in real terms increased by 3.7 per cent in January–September 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. This included a 1.3 per cent rise in food products, beverages, and tobacco products, and a 6.8 per cent rise in non-food items.

Despite the official 5.7 per cent figure, independent economists remain highly skeptical, asserting that inflation in the country is double-digit.

These analysts stress that price increases are driven predominantly by domestic factors. Contributing factors cited include increases implemented this year in the prices of gas, electricity, and transport.

Furthermore, economists emphasize that the rise in food prices has become serious, with some food products reportedly increasing in cost by 20–30 per cent over the year.