Power plays in the area: Iran Says No to the Trump Route

Things are tense in the South Caucasus again. Iran has made it clear that it doesn't like the Trump Route, also called the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). This plan, thought up by U.S. President Donald Trump, wants to build a way to get through southern Armenia. It would that way connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan area. But, Iran sees this as a danger to its safety and power in the region, not a way to make peace.

Ali Akbar Velayati, who is a top advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, talked about the TRIPP plan at a meeting in Tehran with Armenian Ambassador Grigor Akopyan. He said it was just a new version of the Zangezur Corridor, which has been causing arguments. Iran thinks this is just a way for NATO to have more of a presence near Iran's northern borders, which would be bad for both Iran and Russia. Iran worries that American companies and the military will try to use this route for business, which could force changes to borders and shift the balance of power in the region.

Even though Iran has warned against it, the project has moved forward since a meeting in Washington last August. At that meeting, Baku and Yerevan started a peace deal. Armenia agreed to allow free access between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan in exchange for the money it would make from international travel. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan thinks construction could start as soon as next year. He sees the route as a project that Armenia controls and that will respect its borders.

Yerevan has tried to calm Iran's worries. Ruben Rubinyan, Armenia’s Deputy Parliamentary Speaker, said that they have thought about Iran’s red lines. Armenian officials say that the TRIPP plan is not the same as the Zangezur Corridor idea and that they are talking to Iranian partners to make sure everything is open and honest. They say the route will respect both countries' power and be fair to both, instead of being a foreign-controlled hallway.

Russia also wants to be a necessary part of this project. Moscow says that the Trump Route cannot happen without it. It says it controls Armenia’s railway through South Caucasus Railway (which is owned by Russian Railways) and has border guards along much of the route. Yerevan says there have not been any real talks about Russia being involved in TRIPP. Yet, Moscow insists that because the region is joining the Eurasian Economic Union, Russia's cooperation is required. As Washington, Baku, and Yerevan move forward, Tehran and Moscow's conflicting interests mean that making regional connections will be hard.